Lottery / Scratch-Off Expected Value
Lottery Expected Value Calculator — Burn Rate
What this calculator does
This calculator shows the mathematical expected value of lottery tickets. It also estimates how much you lose per year if you play regularly.
The math, with a worked example
Expected value per ticket = (average prize ÷ odds) − ticket cost. Annual burn = expected loss per ticket × tickets per week × 52. A $2 ticket with 1-in-292 odds and a $100 average prize has an expected value of about −$1.66. Playing 5 tickets per week costs over $430 per year in expected losses.
Why this matters
Every lottery ticket has a precise price above its sticker: expected value. At $2 a ticket with the worked example's odds, each play burns about $1.66 on average — and 5 tickets a week compounds that into hundreds a year, paid for the feeling of a chance.
Methodology and transparency
Expected value per ticket = (average prize ÷ odds of winning) − ticket price; annual burn = expected loss × tickets per week × 52. The model simplifies a real prize table into one average prize and one odds figure — actual games have prize tiers, and jackpot games' EV swings with the jackpot size. The direction never changes: every state lottery pays out less than it takes in, by design. Everything runs in your browser; no data is sent or stored.
Last reviewed: 2026-08-08
Common questions
Can I ever beat the lottery?
No. The expected value is negative for almost every ticket and drawing.
What is expected value?
It is the average outcome if you played the game thousands of times. It tells you what the bet is mathematically worth.
Are scratch-offs better?
Usually not. They also have a negative expected value, often worse than the headline jackpot games.