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What this calculator does
This calculator shows the mathematical expected value of lottery tickets. It also estimates how much you lose per year if you play regularly.
The math
Expected value per ticket = (average prize ÷ odds) − ticket cost. Annual burn = expected loss per ticket × tickets per week × 52.
Worked example
A $2 ticket with 1-in-292 odds and a $100 average prize has an expected value of about −$1.66. Playing 5 tickets per week costs over $430 per year in expected losses.
Why this matters
High-fee products are designed to look small per week and huge in total. This calculator exposes the full cost so you can compare it to real alternatives.
Methodology and transparency
This page publishes the exact formula used to compute the result, so you can verify it in a spreadsheet or check the assumptions against your own situation. The worked example uses the tool default inputs; change any number and the result updates live in your browser. No data is sent or stored.
Common questions
Can I ever beat the lottery?
No. The expected value is negative for almost every ticket and drawing.
What is expected value?
It is the average outcome if you played the game thousands of times. It tells you what the bet is mathematically worth.
Are scratch-offs better?
Usually not. They also have a negative expected value, often worse than the headline jackpot games.